Friday, November 27, 2015

New Scientific Poll of Iowa Caucuses



By Steffen Schmidt

Ben Carson and Hillary Clinton lead in the race for president in Iowa, according to a new poll from Iowa State University and WHO-HD. Some of the other results are more surprising.

Of likely Democratic caucus goers Clinton has support from 49.5 percent, Bernie Sanders 27.8, 13.7 percent are undecided, and 6.3 percent said they would vote for someone else ("other.") Martin O'Malley came in with a surprisingly low 2.7 percent.

Of likely Republican caucus goers Ben Carson has support from 27.2 percent, Marco Rubio is second with 16.7 percent; undecided voters are third, making up 16.2 percent; and Donald Trump is fourth with 14.7 percent. This is the first major scientific poll showing Trump so far behind. The rest of the Republican field came in as follows:

· Ted Cruz - 8.9 percent
· Jeb Bush - 4.9 percent
· Rand Paul - 3.3 percent
· Carly Fiorina - 1.8 percent
· John Kasich - 1.1 percent
· Mike Huckabee - 0.9 percent
· Chris Christie - 0.4 percent
· Lindsey Graham - 0.4 percent
· Rick Santorum - 0.2 percent

These numbers suggest that many of the GOP contenders need to consider dropping out unless their numbers pick up soon.

Attention to the 2016 caucuses is very high with 81 percent of those polled saying they are following the race in Iowa either "very closely" or "somewhat closely."

About half of those polled also said they "definitely" have decided or are "leaning" towards supporting a specific candidate in the race. When asked what traits they found most important from candidates "honest and trustworthy" was first at 38 percent, while "takes strong stands" came in second at 20.8 percent.

"The economy in general" was cited by 22.2 percent as the most important issue for 2016. The other issues ranked as follows:

· Dissatisfaction with government, Congress - 10.9 percent
· Federal budget defect, federal debt - 10.0 percent
· Gap between rich and poor - 6.3 percent
· Terrorism - 6.2 percent
· Morality, ethics, religious issues family decline, dishonesty - 5.5 percent
· Health care, health insurance - 4.6 percent
· Foreign policy, foreign aid, focus overseas - 4.1 percent
· Immigration, illegal aliens - 4.1 percent
· Unemployment, jobs - 3.2 percent
· Education - 2.3 percent
· The Environment, pollution - 2.2 percent
· Poverty, hunger, homelessness - 1.1 percent
· Crime, violence - 0.7 percent
· Race relations, racism - 0.6 percent
· Judicial system, courts, laws - 0.1 percent

We expect terrorism to rise as an issue of concern in the coming days.

The most surprising response was the low ranking of illegal immigration, which has been featured so prominently in the media and the emphasis of the Republican candidates.

The poll was conducted by phone with 1,074 registered voters between November 2-15. Margin of error is approximately 3 percent. For more information please contact the ISU Political Science Department, 515-294-7256  polsci@iastate.edu. Prof. Mack Shelley.

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Ernst says never to presidential run

U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst tells the Sioux City Journal that she will never run for president.

Congressman Young statement on terrorism and refugees

Congressman David Young, a Republican representing the Third District, released the following statement on terrorism and refugees:

Congressman David Young
What happened in Paris is devastating and an act of pure evil. I know all across Iowa and America our hearts and prayers go out to France and her people.

Our hearts also go out to those refugees fleeing from the violence and terror in Syria. We are a generous nation and have always welcomed those from abroad who are escaping war and oppression. We will continue to be involved in providing assistance to these children, women and men.

However, we are in a very dangerous position as we consider opening our doors to those escaping violence in Syria and Iraq. It didn't have to be this way. From the beginning, President Obama has not taken the threat of ISIS as serious as a commander-in-chief should. On the morning of the Paris terrorist attacks, the president said ISIS was "contained" - just hours before they carried out one of the most deadly and sophisticated attacks since 9/11. The disconnect is alarming to Congress and to the American people.

Now the Obama administration is charging full speed ahead on a plan to bring 10,000 Syrian refugees into the United States with no reliable way to vet whether these individuals are members of ISIS or have ties to other terrorist organizations. This makes me think back to 2009, when a flaw in the screening of Iraqi refugees allowed two al Qaeda-linked terrorists to enter the United States and settle in Bowling Green, Kentucky. In the aftermath of this case the Obama administration halted the refugee program for Iraqis for six months.

It is clear, we need to press the pause button on the Syria refugee process. The most solemn and consequential responsibility of the federal government is to protect the American people. ISIS has publicly threatened to launch terror attacks on American soil, just like the threats they made to France before this attack and to Russia before downing a Russian passenger plane two weeks ago.

Department of Homeland Secretary Jeh Johnson said, "It is true that we are not going to know a whole lot about the Syrians that come forth in this process."

FBI Director James Comey stated, "My concern there is that there are certain gaps I don't want to talk about publicly in the data available to us."

It would be reckless for the Administration and Congress to not take ISIS threats seriously. We have an obligation to implement a well-thought-out process ensuring - without question - any refugee admitted to the United States has been extensively vetted.

That is why I joined an overwhelming bipartisan majority of 289 members of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass the American Security Against Foreign Enemies Act. This bill would require the Homeland Security Secretary, FBI Director, and Director of National Intelligence to certify refugees from countries with ISIS strongholds are properly vetted to ensure they are not affiliated with this terrorist organization. This is a commonsense step the federal government is required to take to fulfill its duty to protect Americans.

The refugee crisis is a symptom to the broader problem: the lack of a coherent strategy to combat ISIS. The refugee crisis will persist and the very real threat of terrorist attacks on American soil will loom until these terrorists are defeated.

Last week Congress passed a bipartisan National Defense Authorization Act - the annual bill to set defense policies for the upcoming year. The bill would require the president to finally put together a strategy to end ISIS' occupation of the Middle East. President Obama has threatened to veto it. It's time for America to lead. The president needs to sign this bill and put together a strategy to protect America, aid Syrian refugees, and work with our allies to defeat ISIS. 

We must all work together to combat this international threat against our way of life. I will work with anyone willing to achieve the goal of peace and respect for all.

Older voters owned Carroll County, Iowa elections


73.6% of voters were 50 and older; and only 17 people under 25 voted in City of Carroll

By DOUGLAS BURNS
Carroll Daily Times Herald
d.burns@carrollspaper.com

Just 39 people under age 25 voted in municipal elections throughout all cities in Carroll County Nov. 3, according to the Auditor’s Office.

That’s just 1.5 percent of the total voters who cast ballots in those elections. On Election Day, there were 1,105 eligible voters in Carroll County between the ages of 18 and 24.

“Without voting, they’re not really securing that representation,” said Carroll County Auditor Kourtney Irlbeck.

Meanwhile, continuing a trend the Daily Times Herald has reported over the last decade, older voters showed in up in relatively large numbers. Factoring in all city elections this November in Carroll County, 73.6 percent of the voters were 50 and older — and 42.3 percent were 65 and older.

Comparing U.S. Census and election data reveals that seniors in Carroll County dramatically increased the influence of their actual population in the local elections.

According to the 2014 Census estimate, 19.2 percent of Carroll County’s population of 20,562 is 65 and older.

Seniors also posted the highest turnout with 1,054 of the 3,106 registered voters over 64 — or 33.9 percent turning casting ballots.

Countywide, voter turnout for all ages stood at 21.4 percent.

The 440 voters between the ages of 35 and 49 made up 17.6 percent of the voters, and the 178 voters between the ages of 25 and 34 accounted for 7.1 percent of the total vote in the county.

The balance of power in local elections for seniors holds for the City of Carroll, too.

According to election data, of the 1,810 voters in the Carroll city election — in which there were three contested City Council seats — 75 percent of the voters were 50 and older. People 65 and older made up 44.3 percent of the total vote Nov. 3 in the City of Carroll.

There were only 17 people under age 25 who cast ballots in the City of Carroll in this last local election.

In the City of Carroll, the 115 voters between the ages of 35 and 49 represented 17.7 percent of the total vote in the city. And the 115 people ages 25-34 represented 6.4 percent of the total vote.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Sanders statement on Trump Muslim comments

CHARLESTON, S.C. – Democratic Party presidential candidate Bernie Sanders issued the following statement today on Donald Trump's call for the creation of a database system to register Muslims:

"This is an outrageous and bigoted statement. Mr. Trump should be ashamed of himself. We will not destroy ISIS by undermining the Constitution and our religious freedoms."

Friday, November 20, 2015

What would Opa Trump say?


By DAN MANATT


Immigration was the centerpiece of Donald Trump’s campaign kickoff, and it was again at center stage at the recent GOP Fox Business debate. 

At his kickoff, Trump famously said of Mexican immigrants, “...they’re sending (immigrants) that have lots of problems. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.”

And there’s the supreme irony of Donald Trump’s crusade against immigrants:

He is one of them.

That’s right. Trump is the grandson of Friedrich Drumpf, a German immigrant.

So are over one-third of all Iowans.

That German heritage makes Trump’s scapegoating of Mexican immigrants especially ironic, since Iowans’ German forebears were similarly scapegoated for much of Iowa’s history.

Researching our documentary “Whiskey Cookers: The Amazing True Story of the Templeton Bootleggers,” we discovered that the German-American ethnic identity was an essential part of the bootlegging story in western Iowa.  It helped explain the socio-ethnic cohesion — especially in the face of the anti-German xenophobia — that created an environment where bootlegging was not only tolerated, but a pathway to express ethnic pride.

What does that have to do with Donald Trump and immigration? 

Everything.

German immigrants settled Iowa from territorial days.  But in the years immediately following the 1848 German Revolution, when the United States had a population of 23 million, 1.5 million Germans emigrated to America, increasing the population by 6.5 percent.  In 1880, there were 261,650 foreign-born immigrants living in Iowa — fully 16 percent of the population.  Today’s immigrants in Iowa are a blip by comparison — just 97,000, or 3.2 percent.

Iowa’s German immigrants had a reputation for hard work.  They were also stereotyped and resented for speaking German, drinking too much beer, fighting too much, and their religion. 

In the 1850s, the anti-immigrant “Know Nothing” Party accused newly arrived Germans of stealing elections by buying the votes of their fellow immigrants with steins of beer or bottles of whiskey — the 19th century version of today’s ballot-security controversies.

The Women’s Christian Temperance Union attributed much of the nation’s social ills to immigrants and their peculiar addiction — alcoholism.  The WCTU even set up a pavilion on Ellis Island to educate immigrants on the error of their ways before they set foot on the American mainland.
When World War I came, all hell broke loose.

Thousands of Iowans marched against the German Kaiser — including the German-American boys whose families had just emigrated from Germany.

Yet on the home front, another war was being waged — against many of those same German immigrants families.  In Denison, German-language books were burned.  In Manning, the offices of the German-language newspaper, Das Manning Herold, were vandalized.  In Audubon, a German-immigrant farmer was dragged around the square by a noose until he agreed to buy Liberty Bonds.  In Gray, a minister was nearly lynched for preaching in German. 

Throughout the state, and the nation, extra-judicial Citizen Defense Councils held kangaroo courts to determine if citizens were being sufficiently patriotic — with German-Americans frequently targeted. 

Iowa Gov. William Harding issued an executive order — the infamous Babel Proclamation — forbidding citizens from communicating in any language except English in any public place — including churches. 

Nor did World War I’s conclusion end the anti-German hatred and discrimination in Iowa.
In the 1920s, Iowa’s German immigrants faced discrimination and hate from a group new to the Hawkeye state: the Ku Klux Klan.  The 1920s Klan was very active in the Midwest, and chose new targets: bootleggers, immigrants and Catholics — three groups they saw, not without reason, as overlapping.  The 1920s Klan in Iowa  burned crosses to intimidate immigrants, and trafficked in hysterical anti-Catholicism, circulating pamphlets claiming that the Catholic Knights of Columbus required their members to take an oath to, upon orders from Rome, murder their Protestant neighbors.
Western Iowa’s German-Catholics circled the wagons, organizing new Knights of Columbus chapters — a group founded on outreach to immigrants.  They continued to hold their German Saints Day feast, but added a new secular character: Uncle Sam.

And Opa Trump?

A recent book, “The Trumps: Three Generations That Built an Empire,” lays out the fascinating immigrant history — and paradoxes — of the Trump family.

Friedrich Drumpf arrived in the U.S. in 1885 — ironically, three years after passage of America’s first anti-immigrant law, the Chinese Exclusion Act — and promptly Americanized his name to Frederick Trump.  Trump came from Kallstadt in northern Bavaria, the same exact region from which many western Iowans emigrated. 

Once in America, Trump headed west, settling in Seattle and then the Yukon, where he ran saloons that rented “private rooms” — the sort of activity that sparked deep protest from the Women’s Christian Temperance Union.

One parallel between grandfather and grandson: they both prefer European brides.  Frederick Trump returned to the Old Country to court the “fräulein” next door — Donald Trump’s grandmother.
But like the immigrants of today, Opa Trump was incredibly hardworking, laying the foundation for the family dynasty that created the success that is Donald Trump.

Some may protest that Frederick Trump and his fellow German immigrants can’t be compared to today’s immigrants — while they were technically “undocumented” immigrants with no visa, they weren’t illegal immigrants. True.  But they were accused of being impossibly un-American, and incapable of being assimilated into America’s mainstream.  Political cartoons of the era portray German immigrants as subhuman and backward drunkards, unable to speak English and stealing ballot boxes at election time.

Given the Trump family history, and given the history of German-American Iowans being on the receiving end of anti-immigrant hatred, prejudice and violence, the anti-immigrant chords being struck in Iowa by Trump and others show shocking ignorance of our shared history.
It also shows a shameful insensitivity not just to today’s immigrants, but to the memory of Iowa’s own German immigrant grandparents and great-grandparents — and to Opa Trump.

Now, anyone who Googles my name could counter argue that (1) I’m not an Iowan; and (2) I’m a former Democrat political consultant.  Guilty as charged.  That said (1) my family came to Iowa in 1848, and I maintain deep ties to the state. (2) My great-grandfather John Klinkefus from Shelby County used to get bullied for speaking German; so this issue is personal for me. (3) As to partisanship, while I am former Democratic consultant, my bipartisan bona fides are equally strong — I have worked for several Republicans, including men who worked for Gerald Ford, Henry Kissinger and George H.W. Bush. 

I can absolutely see why voters are drawn to Donald Trump.  I just want them to be honest about Iowa’s own immigrant past.

For the grandchildren of Iowa’s German immigrants to ignore our common immigrant history and to feel no empathy when dealing with today’s Latino immigrants is unconscionable. 

The starting point for Iowans when debating immigration surely has to be to acknowledge that we are the grandchildren of immigrants — and that our families have also suffered discrimination. 

Iowans should remember their own immigrant heritage, and their own immigrant history, and in so doing act with a bit more empathy on immigration.

(Editor’s Note: Dan Manatt is director of Democracy Films and of the documentary “Whiskey Cookers: The Amazing True Story of Templeton’s Bootleggers.”)

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Breaking news from Carroll Daily Times Herald

Friday, November 13, 2015

Rubio campaigning in Carroll

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a Republican candidate for the presidency, will be hosting a town hall in Carroll on Monday, Nov. 23 at Greasewood Flats Ranch located at 1607 Griffith Road.
Sen. Marco Rubio

Doors will open at 8 a.m. with the town hall starting at 8:30 a.m. The event is open to the full public.

Carroll Mayor Adam Schweers, an active Republican, and State Rep. Brian Best, R-Glidden, have endorsed Rubio.

The latest Real Clear Politics average of major national polls among Republican voters has real-estate mogul Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field with 24.8 support compared with 24.4 percent for Dr. Ben Carson, a surgeon and author. Rubio is in third at 11.8 percent. The polling is an average running from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

U.S. Senate leader gives Jefferson Dairy Queen a shout out


Who needs sprinkles and nuts when you get glowing Congressional floor speech topping your ice cream.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky Tuesday talked about Jefferson’s Dairy Queen while spinning anecdotes about colleague Charles Grassley, the Iowa lawmaker who just passed the 12,000-vote milestone — the last 7,474 of them consecutive.

McConnell recognized Grassley’s work ethic, noting that besides not missing a Senate vote since 1993, the Iowan visits all 99 counties in his state every year — a feat known nationally — and generally spoken with great fondness and affection — as “The Full Grassley.”

Recently, Grassley, an Iowa Republican, completed another Full Grassley. And McConnell delighted in telling his Senate colleagues about Grassley’s way of treating himself after the town-hall, school-visit, business-tour endurance test.

“He gets a blizzard from Dairy Queen,” McConnell said in his Leader’s remarks to open Senate business. “Sometimes chocolate. Sometimes vanilla. But always swirled with Snickers. This year, he got to DQ so early he had to wait in the parking lot.”

And where was the Dairy Queen?

“He Tweeted about it,” McConnell said. “Here’s what he said: ‘I’m at the Jefferson Iowa Dairy Queen doing you know what.’”

Monday, November 02, 2015

Huckabee: If abortion is made illegal, women shouldn't be punished for having one

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee is pro-life. He’s opposed to abortion and believes life begins at conception.

So what if his position prevails, and abortion is again illegal in the United States? In that case, what should the penalty be for a woman who has an abortion or a physician who performs one?
Mike Huckabee

The Carroll (Iowa) Daily Times Herald put the question to Huckabee Friday during an interview on the sidewalk outside of Sam’s Sodas and Sandwiches in downtown Carroll.

Here’s Huckabee’s answer:

“The penalty shouldn’t be upon the woman,” Huckabee said. “In most every case, the woman having an abortion is also a victim. She’s either been talked into it by her friend, her boyfriend, her mother, her grandmother.”

Leading Chicago Latino: Rubio ‘callous’ on immigration

Jesus "Chuy" Garcia
Marco Rubio wants to change the very immigration system that allowed his family to migrate to the United States from Cuba.

And the Republican presidential candidate’s call in the CNBC debate last week for a move from immigration based on family ties to a merit evaluation won’t sit well with the Latino community, says Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, a Cook County (Illinois) Commissioner whose progressive campaign forced a run-off in the recent Chicago mayoral campaign.

“It seems rather inconsistent and callous because I think immigration in America has always had a connection to family,” Garcia, a Chicago political veteran who drew national attention with his challenge to Mayor Rahm Emanuel, said in an interview with this newspaper in Des Moines Saturday.

Ending family chain migration abruptly doesn’t make sense, Garcia said.

“Family is a great connector of people who are being productive and contributing to this country,” Garcia said. “While it shouldn’t be the only factor in determining who can come here, it has to remain one of the central facets of our immigration system.”

Garcia, who dramatically boosted Latino turnout in his mayoral bid, said it is going to be challenging for Rubio to maintain his position on immigration.

“It may be beneficial to him in winning the Republican nomination,” Garcia said. “But in a general election it will come back to bite him.”

The topic of uniting families is “near and dear” to Latinos, Garcia said.

In CNBC debate Rubio called for a major overhaul to the immigration system.

“Today, we have a legal immigration system for permanent residency that is largely based on whether or not you have a relative living here.,” Rubio said. “And that’s the way my parents came legally in 1956. But in 2015, we have a very different economy. Our legal immigration system from now on has to be merit-based. It has to be based on what skills you have, what you can contribute economically.”

Garcia attended the League of United Latin American Citizens dinner and awards banquet at the Des Moines Airport Holiday Inn where he, among other things, advocated for the presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders.

Sanders doesn’t take money from Super PACs, and that’s key, Garcia said in a speech.

“Big special interests have come to dominate politics in our country,” he said, adding that he has been a “long-time admirer” of Sanders’ politics.