Thursday, October 09, 2014

Loras College Poll finds Braley and Ernst tied



DUBUQUE, Iowa— With less than a month to go, the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Tom Harkin is all tied up according to the results of the new Loras College Poll released today. The first October Loras College Poll of the U.S. Senate race in Iowa yielded the following result:

Bruce Braley              42.1 percent
Joni Ernst                  42.4 percent
Other Candidate         3.7 percent
Undecided                  11.8 percent
          
These new results from a survey conducted October 1-3, 2014, indicate a rise in support for Ernst since the Loras College Poll taken at the beginning of September. That poll showed Braley with the advantage.

Name Identification and Favorability—Comparison of Loras College Poll Results

Bruce Braley                          October                      September                  June              

Heard of, favorable                 37.0 percent                36.3 percent                35.8 percent  
Heard of, unfavorable             35.8 percent                33.7 percent                25.7 percent
Heard of, no opinion               18.8 percent                20.3 percent                25.0 percent
Never heard of/refused             8.4 percent                  9.6 percent                13.5 percent              

Joni Ernst                              October                      September                  June              

Heard of, favorable                 42.5 percent                36.9 percent                42.2 percent
Heard of, unfavorable             37.2 percent                39.5 percent                29.2 percent
Heard of, no opinion               14.7 percent                16.8 percent                20.3 percent
Never heard of/refused             5.6 percent                  6.8 percent                  8.3 percent

“Our latest results indicate that State Senator Ernst has recaptured some of the momentum she possessed at the beginning of this important race for control of the U.S. Senate,” commented Associate Professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.

“Ernst’s favorability ratings have returned to levels we found immediately following the June primary. While our September poll found Ernst’s unfavorable rating higher than her favorable rating, this most recent poll finds Ernst has righted that ship. It is important to note that despite the campaign advertising, Congressman Braley has managed to always have his favorable rating above his unfavorable in our poll results. That is impressive given the media barrage on both candidates,” said Budzisz.


Preferences of No-Party Registrants

The Loras College Poll asked respondents to identify their party registration and their sense and strength of partisan affiliation.

“Braley and Ernst displayed similar patterns of support from their respective parties, with both enjoying strong support from the party faithful. The battle appears to be for those who are registered as No-Party. Traditionally, this segment of the Iowa electorate accounts for around a quarter of all voters in a midterm election,” Budzisz commented.

Of those all-important, No-Party registrants (comprising 21.5 percent of our random sample), the results for the U.S. Senate race were as follows:

No-Party Registrants

Braley                          34.1 percent
Ernst                            42.6 percent
Other Candidate           6.2 percent
Undecided                  17.1 percent


Beyond the No-Party registrants, Democratic and Republican registrants may view themselves more as independents than partisans, and still others may respond that they are unsure as to which party they see themselves belonging.

“Amongst all those voters who responded that they view themselves as politically independent or with an unsure affiliation, regardless of their specific registration, the news for Congressman Braley is better as he and Ernst exactly split this group 37.7 percent to 37.7 percent,” said Budzisz.

Sentiments of voters on President Obama’s performance in office and the direction of the country serve as an important backdrop to this midterm election. The Loras College Poll surveyed likely voters in Iowa on both of these issues.

                      
Job Performance of President Obama
Comparison of Loras College Poll Results

October                       September                   June               
Approve                      40.8 percent                40.7 percent                42.5 percent
Disapprove                  52.2 percent                53.0 percent                54.2 percent
Unsure/Refused            7.0 percent                  6.4 percent                  3.4 percent

President Obama’s job performance ratings remain virtually unchanged from previous polls.

“Many Iowans remain critical of President Obama, and it is clear that this fact is having an impact on the Senate campaign from ads and mailers to campaign talking points,” Budzisz remarked. “The same general persistent negative pattern holds for the assessment of the direction of the country as it has for President Obama’s job approval.”


Direction of Country
Comparison of Loras College Poll Results

                                    October                       September                   June               
Right Track                 27.5 percent                24.8 percent                30.7 percent
Wrong Direction         58.0 percent                59.5 percent                58.5 percent
Unsure/Refused          14.5 percent                15.7 percent                10.9 percent


Military Action and the Islamic State

Given President Obama’s recent deployment of U.S. military forces in coalition operations against the Islamic State, or ISIS, the Loras College Poll asked voters whether they support this military action and whether or not they believe that the current strategy will be successful in defeating this organization.

Current U.S. Military Action against Islamic State/ISIS

Support Action                                   66.0 percent
Oppose Action                                    15.3 percent
Unsure/No Opinion                             18.7 percent

While a clear majority of respondents support the current military action, a plurality (43.3 percent) of respondents do not expect the current strategy to succeed in defeating the Islamic State.  Nearly a third more are unsure of the strategy’s expected success.

Expectation that Strategy will succeed

Yes, expect it will succeed                 24.8 percent
No, expect it will not succeed            43.3 percent
Unsure/No Opinion                             31.8 percent


The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely 2014 general election voters; statewide results have a 4 percent margin of error.  The survey was conducted October 1-3, 2014.

·         Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters (from official Iowa Secretary of State voter file) who voted in the 2012 general election or who have registered since the 2012 election.
·         Likely voter was defined within the sample drawn as those self-indicating they were “extremely likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2014 election.
·         While the sample was balanced for standard demographic variables such as age, gender and geography, it was not weighted for party.
·         Survey included both landlines (80 percent) and cell phones (20 percent).
·         The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.
·         Script development and methodology used for the survey received input from Republican campaign consultant Steve Grubbs, and Democrat campaign consultant Dave Heller.

Al Jazeera America Presents Behind-The-Scenes Look at U.S. Politics and Three Definitive Political Races in “Midterms”


New Three-Part Documentary from Director AJ Schnack (“Caucus”) Goes Inside Four Key Political Races in Three Swing States: Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina -- October 19, October 26 and November 2

NEW YORK– September 18, 2014 - Al Jazeera America today announced that Midterms, a three-episode documentary series focused on the upcoming American elections in 2014, will air Sunday, October 19th, Sunday, October 26th and Sunday, November 2nd at 9p ET/6p PT.

Chronicling four bellwether races in three swing states – Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina --Midterms is a portrait of the campaigns, issues and individuals in the year’s most heated political races. AJ Schnack, who directed the 2013 film “Caucus” about the 2011-12 Republican race in the Iowa Caucus, gained unprecedented access to the candidates and their staffs, going inside races that have the potential for political upsets that could predict the national mood come November 2014.  An up-close, unbiased examination of U.S. politics, Midterms shows the personal and human side of running for office and the issues that may define the 2014 national elections, including health care, immigration and government spending in Washington.

“Midterms is a fly-on-the-wall look at some of the most hotly contested political races in the country,” said Shannon High-Bassalik, senior vice-president, documentaries and programs. “AJ’s unique access to the campaigns gives us a sense of what the candidates are really facing, as they tackle issues like outside money, negative campaigning, controversial ads, and the changing demographics in their districts.”

“We want the audience to have a close-up, intimate portrait of these candidates and the issues that will define 2014,” says Midterms director AJ Schnack. “We're thrilled to be working with Al Jazeera America to bring viewers a truly unprecedented, bi-partisan look at these races as they are unfolding.”

In Iowa, where 40% of voters are neither Democrat nor Republican, Midterms follows two tightly contested races. Al Jazeera America goes inside the race for the first open Senate seat in Iowa in nearly 40 years between Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley and Republican State Senator Joni Ernst. There, Ernst’s TV ads have helped even up a race that many had thought was safely democratic.

Schnack follows the Iowa race for one of the most competitive seats in the country: the House race for retiring Republican Tom Latham’s seat between former Democratic Iowa State Senator Staci Appel and Republican David Young.

In swing state Colorado, Midterms tracks a race in the competitive 6th district in the eastern suburbs of Denver, with Republican incumbent Mike Coffman challenged by former Democratic Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. “Mike Coffman’s taking Spanish, Mike Coffman’s learning Korean,” Lynn Bartels, political reporter for The Denver Post, says about the candidates’ efforts to address the district’s changing demographics.
And in closely contested North Carolina, we follow what could be a $100 million Senate race between Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan challenged by North Carolina Speaker of the House Thom Tillis.
Midterms is directed by AJ Schnack with producer Shirley Moyers and director of photography Nathan Truesdell. They are joined by series producer John Mernit, acclaimed filmmaker/editors Jeff Malmberg (Marwencol) and Jason Tippet (Only the Young), noted illustrator for the Des Moines Register, Mark Marturello and graphics designers Juan Cardarelli and Eric Levy (Undefeated).
Al Jazeera America’s documentary unit brings critically-acclaimed, long-form storytelling to audiences on Sunday evenings as part of the “Al Jazeera America Presents” strand.  Previously aired documentaries Borderland, a four-part documentary series on immigration; The System with Joe Berlinger, an eight-episode series by the Oscar-nominated filmmaker Joe Berlinger that explores the criminal justice system in the United States, and Edge of Eighteen by Academy Award-winning director Alex Gibney.
Al Jazeera America is available in more than 60 million homes in the U.S. on Comcast, Time Warner Cable, DirecTV Channel 347, Dish Network Channel 215, Verizon FiOS Channel 614 and AT&T U-Verse Channel 1219. To find Al Jazeera America in your area, visit www.aljazeera.com/getajam.
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About Al Jazeera America
Al Jazeera America is the new U.S. news channel that provides both domestic and international news for American audiences. It is headquartered in New York City with bureaus in 12 cities across the United States.
Visit Al Jazeera America online at http://www.aljazeera.com/america for the latest updates.You can also like us on Facebook www.facebook.com/aljazeeraamerica, follow us on Twitter @AJAM (www.twitter.com/ajam) and join the conversation using #AlJazeeraAmerica.
About AJ Schnack
AJ Schnack is a nonfiction filmmaker and writer based in Los Angeles.  He is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism and a native of Southern Illinois.
His most recent film is Caucus (2013), a cinéma vérité portrait of the 2011-12 Republican race to first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus. The film had its world premiere at the 2013 Hot Docs Film Festival in Toronto and celebrated its US Premiere in June as the Closing Night Film at the inaugural AFI Docs in Washington, D.C.
Schnack also recently released We Always Lie to Strangers (2013), about four families dealing with change and economic challenges in the tourist town of Branson, Missouri. The film debuted at the 2013 SXSW Film Festival, where it won the jury prize for Directing. His previous films include the ensemble documentary Convention (2009), which was released by IFC Films/Sundance Selects; Kurt Cobain About a Son (2006), which premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and was released theatrically in North America, France, Japan, Brazil, Australia and aired on More4 in the United Kingdom; and Gigantic (A Tale of Two Johns (2002), which premiered at the SXSW Film Festival and was released theatrically in North America by Cowboy Pictures.
In addition to the 2013 SXSW Directing Prize, Schnack won the award for Best Director at the 2013 Philadelphia Film Festival for Caucus. He was also nominated for a 2007 Independent Spirit Award for Kurt Cobain About a Son and was the first recipient of AFI Silverdocs' Cinematic Vision Award for that same film.  He was recently an editor on Michael Rapaport's Beats, Rhymes and Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest, which premiered at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival, was acquired by Sony Pictures Classics and won the Producers Guild Award for Best Documentary.
He is the Founding Director of the Cinema Eye Honors for Nonfiction Filmmaking, which held its 7th annual ceremony at the Museum of the Moving Image in New York City in January 2014.  From 2005-2011, he wrote the popular nonfiction film blog, All these wonderful things.  He has served on juries at Sheffield Doc/Fest, CPH:DOX, DokuFest Kosovo, Los Angeles, AFI Silverdocs, Miami, Sarasota, Denver, Ashland and the Independent Spirit Awards & has curated panels at Sheffield Doc/Fest, AFI Silverdocs and True/False.