Monday, September 08, 2014

Braley holds lead in Loras poll as Ernst's favorabilty numbers plunge

Senator Joni Ernst
Congressman Bruce Braley
DUBUQUE — Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley holds a 4.8 percent edge over Republican State Senator Joni Ernst in one of the key races for control of the U.S. Senate. The post-Labor Day Loras College Poll of the U.S. Senate race in Iowa yielded the following result:

Bruce Braley              45.3 percent
Joni Ernst                  40.5 percent
Undecided                  14.2 percent


These new results show a decline in support for Ernst from the Loras College Poll taken immediately after the primaries in June. That poll showed Ernst leading the race 48.0 percent to 41.7 percent.

The U.S. Senate race in Iowa has garnered national attention, with two competitive candidates vying for the open seat created by the retirement of Democratic Senator Tom Harkin.

“Most analysts have had the Ernst-Braley race as a ‘toss-up,’ and our new poll finds Congressman Braley with a slight edge, with the trend in his direction,” said Associate Professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D. “It’s clear that the heavy negative advertising has taken its toll on Ernst.  In June, 42 percent of likely voters viewed her favorably, while just 29 percent had an unfavorable view. Her unfavorable rating has now jumped to over 39 percent and exceeds her favorable rating. Both candidates have seen their unfavorable rating increase, but Ernst’s is a more notable increase,” Budzisz remarked.


NAME IDENTIFICATION AND FAVORABILITY:
Comparison of September and June Loras College Poll Results

Bruce Braley                          September                              June______

Heard of, favorable                 36.3 percent                            35.8 percent              
Heard of, unfavorable             33.7 percent                            25.7 percent
Heard of, no opinion               20.3 percent                            25.0 percent
Never heard of/refused             9.6 percent                            13.5 percent              

Joni Ernst                              September                              June______

Heard of, favorable                 36.9 percent                            42.2 percent
Heard of, unfavorable             39.5 percent                            29.2 percent
Heard of, no opinion               16.8 percent                            20.3 percent
Never heard of/refused             6.8 percent                              8.3 percent


Beyond favorability, the Loras College Poll asked respondents to choose which candidate best represents the values of the respondent and whose position on issues is closest to their own.


Candidate Who Best Represents Your Values

Braley                                      38.6 percent
Ernst                                        37.6 percent
Undecided/Refused                23.9 percent


Candidate Whose Positions on Issues Closest to Your Own

Braley                                      39.8 percent
Ernst                                        37.8 percent
Undecided/Refused                22.3 percent


“Looking at the values and issue position question, it appears that neither candidate has a clear advantage,” Budzisz remarked.

Looking at specific issues, however, differences clearly emerge between Braley and Ernst supporters, as well as the undecided. The Loras College Poll asked respondents to rate the importance of a number of issues as they consider the upcoming election. Below is the percentage of a candidate’s self-reported supporters who rated the specific issue as “critically important” or “very important.”  Complete issue results available by clicking here.



Illegal Immigration—rated as critically or very important

Braley                          42.9 percent
Ernst                            65.8 percent
Undecided                  53.2 percent

National Debt—rated as critically or very important

Braley                          46.6 percent
Ernst                            80.5 percent
Undecided                  61.4 percent

Income Equality—rated as critically or very important

Braley                          52.5 percent
Ernst                            20.6 percent
Undecided                  32.2 percent

Environmental Issues—rated as critically or very important

Braley                          59.3 percent
Ernst                            23.0 percent
Undecided                  32.7 percent

Foreign Affairs and National Security—rated as critically or very important

Braley                          74.4 percent
Ernst                            81.3 percent
Undecided                  66.1 percent

Jobs and Economy—rated as critically or very important

Braley                          79.9 percent
Ernst                            77.0 percent
Undecided                  73.1 percent

“We found the differences in issue importance largely track with established partisan lines.  Within the results you can also see reflected some of the recent heightened attention on foreign affairs and national security, as well the continued mixed economic news and sentiment,” said Budzisz. “While jobs/economy is traditionally the most important issue voters list, foreign affairs and national security is certainly on the minds of Iowans. Over the past several months, there has been substantial media attention on international developments and national security, and I think we are finding that this is impacting Iowans as they consider the upcoming election.”

While the survey sample was balanced for standard demographic variables such as age, gender and geography, it was not weighted for partisanship/party registration. Respondents were asked to self-identify their partisan affiliation and its strength.

Self-identified partisan affiliation within random survey sample:

Strong Democrat                     23.8 percent
Not Strong Democrat               8.8 percent
Not Strong Republican             8.8 percent
Strong Republican                  21.4 percent
Independent                           33.8 percent
Unsure/Refused                        3.3 percent
                      

The Loras College Poll surveyed 1,200 likely 2014 general election voters; statewide results have a 2.82 percent margin of error.  The survey was conducted September 2-5, 2014.
·         Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters who voted in the 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 election.
·         Likely voter was defined as those self-indicating they were “extremely likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2014 election.
While the sample was balanced for standard demographic variables such as age, gender and geography, it was not weighted for partisanship.
Survey included both landlines (80 percent) and cell phones (20 percent).
The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.
Script development and methodology used for the survey received input from Republican campaign consultant Steve Grubbs, and Democrat campaign consultant Dave Heller.

For more on today’s announced results, please click here.  Results for the gubernatorial election will be released on Tuesday, September 9, 2014, followed by results from the congressional races on Wednesday, September 10, 2014.

The Loras College Poll is conducted several times each year. Loras College faculty and student researchers work as part of the survey research team to develop poll questions, analyze and interpret data, and assist with sharing the final results with local, regional and national media.  Surveys are administered by professional, live callers through a contracted call center.

Capitalizing on its location in the politically vital and vibrant state of Iowa, the Iowa Presidential Caucuses serves as a cornerstone of the Loras College Poll, with additional surveys focused on current events, social issues, economic issues, politics and more.

Friday, September 05, 2014

Jindal: It’s 'gotcha' tactic to ask pro-lifers about penalties for abortion



Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal speaking in Carroll in the fall of 2012.

"This isn't about locking up women."

— GOP presidential contender Bobby Jindal

"The provider should be punished."

— U.S. Senate candidate Joni Ernst


State Sen. Joni Ernst deserves points for candor on her pro-life stance on abortion.

The Red Oak Republican's stated position would be that the person performing the abortion should be punished — if the leading goal of her social ideology is realized, and abortion is criminalized.

Her exact words, reports The Hill:  "The provider should be punished, if there were a personhood amendment."

Not all pro-lifers are comfortable talking about the penalty phase that would be involved in punishing doctors and/or women were abortion illegal again.

Take for instance a Sept. 26, 2012 interview I did with Gov. Bobby Jindal, a Louisiana Republican, and likely presidential candidate in 2016, following a campaign stop he made in Carroll, Iowa, to ostensibly support Mitt Romney and challenge gay marriage. Ernst said what Jindal doggedly dodged.

Here is the complete text of the Daily Times Herald exchange with Jindal on abortion:

Daily Times Herald: “A lot of people here today share your views on anti-abortion. It’s a very pro-life crowd here. I understand that you don’t provide for exceptions for rape and incest with your position on abortion. Should your pro-life position prevail, and abortion be criminalized again, what do you think would be a fair penalty for a woman who has an abortion or a doctor who performs one?”

Govenor Jindal: “I think it’s a great gotcha question. This is not about ...”

Daily Times Herald: “It’s not a gotcha question. Isn’t that the end game of your position, sir?”

Governor Jindal: “Çan I answer your question now?”

Daily Times Herald: “Well.”

Governor Jindal: “Let me finish the answer, all right?”

Daily Times Herald: “But it’s not a gotcha question.”

Governor Jindal:
“It is. And let me answer your question. It’s a great gotcha question. Like many others dedicated to the pro-life cause, this isn’t about locking up women. This is about creating a culture of life where every child is loved and accepted in our society, creating a consistent culture of life where we value every innocent human life and want them to be born and nurtured and raised in our society. This isn’t about locking up women. This is about accepting those babies. This is about loving all human life and protecting innocent human life, and certainly that takes a lot more work. It’s not as simple as simply passing a law or even passing a constitutional amendment. It truly is about creating a consistent culture of life, where every child is valued, loved, nurtured and protected.”

Daily Times Herald: “So if it’s illegal ...”

Governor Jindal: “I gotta catch a ride.”

SBA List Slams Braley Ad Attacking Ernst’s Pro-Life Values



Dannenfelser: Braley’s claim in TV ad ‘laughable’, ‘needs to look in the mirror’


WASHINGTON, D.C. – The national pro-life group Susan B. Anthony List (SBA List) today slammed Iowa Congressman and senatorial candidate Bruce Braley (D) for his support for late abortion and for cosponsoring legislation to enshrine abortion on demand up until the moment of birth. Today, the Braley for U.S. Senate campaign launched an ad attacking his opponent Joni Ernst’s pro-life values. Ernst has been endorsed by the Susan B. Anthony List Candidate Fund.

“Congressman Braley’s claim that Joni Ernst has a ‘radical’ position on abortion is laughable, and he clearly needs to look in the mirror,” said Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser.  “In Congress, Braley has been a rubber stamp for the abortion industry. Not only has he voted for taxpayer-funded abortion, he opposed a common sense limit on abortion after 5 months of pregnancy.  Braley even co-sponsored legislation to wipe out all state limits on abortion and enshrine abortion on-demand until birth.”

“Iowa women and children deserve better than Bruce Braley. As both a mother and a soldier, Joni Ernst knows what it means to protect the weak and vulnerable. Her courageous leadership is urgently needed in the U.S. Senate, where there are currently only two pro-life women serving.”

Joni Ernst has received the endorsements of incumbent Iowa Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds and former Gov. Sarah Palin. Reynolds and Palin were both previously endorsed by the SBA List Candidate Fund.

The Susan B. Anthony List and its affiliated Political Action Committees, the SBA List Candidate Fund and Women Speak Out PAC, are dedicated to pursuing policies and electing candidates who will reduce and ultimately end abortion. To that end, the SBA List emphasizes the education, promotion, mobilization, and election of pro-life women at all levels of government.  The SBA List is a network of more than 365,000 pro-life Americans nationwide.